The next four to six weeks will be a time unlike any other in history. While this period will be filled with uncertainty, how we deal with this uncertainty is up to us.

Antifragility and COVID-19

Nassim Taleb's concept of Antifragility has never been more prevalent than it is right now. If you're unfamiliar with the concept, it's a rather simple one.

“Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, despite the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile. Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.” -- Nassim Taleb

The differences between fragility, robustness, and antifragility are best illustrated by comparing a glass vase, a brick, and a rubber bouncy ball. If we spiked each of these on the ground, the glass vase would shatter, the brick would be relatively unchanged, and the bouncy ball would go soaring.

During these uncertain times, we can choose to follow the path of any one of these three items. We can be the glass vase, allowing ourselves to be overwhelmed by the changes and break down— this is the easiest choice. We can be the brick, remaining relatively unchanged and doing our best to maintain the status quo— this is slightly harder. Or, we can be the bouncy ball. We can gain from the disorder and emerge better than we were before it— this is the hardest choice.

To cultivate this antifragility, I started with a simple question: How can I make the most of this uncertainty? And my immediate takeaway was simple: I will have more free time over the next four to six weeks than I will ever have again until I retire. With that in mind, I asked myself another question: What are 10 things I could do, practice, learn, or think about that I'm usually unable to given time constraints? After writing out my answers, I went from dreading the uncertainty to being excited about it!

While I don't plan on acting on every single one of these every day, having a list of things to do during all this down time made me feel better about the situation. If you're looking for some ideas as well, the 10 things I came up with are:

1. Creating a working-from-home routine

Out of nowhere, our environment has shifted dramatically. One of the key takeaways from Atomic Habits is the best time to create new habits is during this sudden environment shift. However, this works for bad habits as well as good habits. What we do during the first few days of the quarantine are likely to stick, so I'm trying to set myself up for success from the start. A few things I'm doing:

Having defined start-up and shut-down times. What can happen while working from home is we work at 70% of the pace for 20% longer— that's what I am trying to prevent.
Starting each day with a walk outside and ending each day with a walk as well.
Add in some structure with lunch breaks, walk breaks, exercise breaks, etc.

2. Mastering at-home training

With gyms shut, our only choice is to find a way to workout at home. For a while, I've wanted to become better at training with kettlebells and my own bodyweight. I ordered two kettlebells from Amazon, one 60lb and one 40lb, and am working my way through these 101 kettlebell workouts.

3. Reading more (specifically History)

History is something I always plan to read but something that usually falls by the wayside for more immediate things. With more time, I have no excuses. I'm starting with re-reading Lessons of History and then plan on learning about the 1960s and '70s economic environment.

4. Strengthening relationships

Social distancing needs to be renamed to physical distancing because "social" distancing is the last thing we need right now. If you're quarantined with your family, ask your parents to tell you old stories that you've never had time to listen to. If you're away from them, teach them how to use Zoom or Group FaceTime and schedule a daily call. The same thing goes with your friends. If any are living in particularly vulnerable areas, reach out sincerely and ask how they're doing.

5. Getting rid of things

I'm taking this opportunity to clear out my desk drawers, closet, and any other area that always need to be cleaned but rarely get any attention. This has also served as a somewhat mindless distraction from the sensational headlines.

6. Taking long walks (while I still can)

There is a good chance that within the next 5-10 days, the US will enter a nationwide shutdown. Before that happens, I'm trying to start and end each day with a 30-minute walk, because soon I might not be able to. It's also fascinating to walk the usually-packed streets of NYC and soak in the quiet.

7. Cultivating steadiness

Meditation and is something I've done off and on for quite some time, but I usually fall off when things get hectic. I've started back up on Sam Harris' 50-day meditation course as well as started reading two highly-recommended books— Already Free by Bruce Tift and The Inner Game of Tennis by Timothy Gallwey.

8. Writing daily

While I've had a journaling habit for a while now, writing has been something usually relegated to weekends. I'm looking to publish two or three shorts posts a week for the next few weeks to try and put more ideas into the mix.

9. Improving a skill (specifically Cooking)

With nearly all restaurants closed and a few weeks worths of food stocked in the fridge, what better time to learn how to cook a few things that actually taste good? To do so, I'm perusing a few recipes and skills from The Four-Hour Chef. But this is a great time to practice any skill— playing an instrument, learning to knit, speedcubing, anything that is always in the back of your mind but you just never get to.

10. Accepting and imagining a new reality

Things are likely to be different for some time— the quicker we come to terms with these changes, the more effective we can be. There will be some short-term changes that likely return to normal, and we'll get over those. But I am imagining what the longer-term social, political, fiscal, monetary, and societal changes will be. It's been a fun exercise so far, and something I'll likely write about this week.

Conclusion

Each of us has control over how we react to the uncertainty of the COVID-19 quarantine. By asking the question "How can I make the best of this?" we can turn the uncertainty into opportunity. I hope to fondly on the things I did during this time when it's all said and done.